The best talent in professional golf converges for the annual PGA Championship. For my analysis, I prioritise player form, statistics, and odds.
There is an overlap between value and consistency that the best bets provide, which will increase the likelihood of winning a pool or bet.
Addison and Bergonzi (2017) make a compelling case for including players like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, experienced major champions, in golf pools.
Riskier yet high-fi returning picks often take the form of under-the-radar prospects with high potential who are not seen as frontrunners to win.
Data analysis combined with expert insights shapes these picks that walk the tightrope between risk and reward.
For those looking for a straightforward endorsement, look to the highlights of my earlier analysis of the five players I endorsed for this year’s championship.
Table of Contents
The Criteria for Selecting PGA Championship Best Bets
In the case of the PGA Championship, I determine the best bets by evaluating the player’s current form, the player’s course fit, and the betting odds.
Such factors inform my decisions for value bets with tangible winning probabilities.
Assessing Player Form
Analysing form plays a critical role in enabling informed betting decisions. Recent tournament results and previous finishes within the top 20 and top 10 are considered.
A good round is simply not enough; consistency is key.
I also go over other relevant information like driving accuracy, greens, and putting statistics. These players usually perform well due to their consistent numbers across the board during the majors.
This trait is exemplified by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, making them ideal bets owing to their all-around solid performance.
Evaluating Course Fit
Different players excel on different courses. While considering the best PGA Championship bets, I analyse how well a player’s game suits the course layout at Quail Hollow.
The course favours aggressive shot makers with ball control and those who are good at putting on fast greens.
I look at historical performance data at Quail Hollow or equivalent courses. For example, people like Collin Morikawa, who thrive on parkland-style tracks, usually do better here.
Understanding who deals well with difficult roughs and tight fairways helps my selection.
If you’re looking to sharpen your skills for courses with similar characteristics, like Quail Hollow, you may want to consider exploring golf courses in Scotland, which offer similar challenges.
Assessing Strategic Wagering on Betting Markets
My wagers for the PGA Championship also consider wagering value. I look for better value than the player’s odds about the payout across various bookmakers.
Wagers such as “top 20 finish” or “cut” can yield lower-risk bets with high returns. Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas offer solid value given their form, so a parlay where they cut is reasonable.
I do not take bets with too many people rooting for the same favourite due to low odds and overwhelming popular support. Rather, bets like Corey Conners, who offer the prospect of great earnings for consistent play, are more appealing to me.
My Top 5 PGA Championship Best Bets
Outright Winner Best Bet
As I maintain in one of my prior best bets, in the recent bets offered, I like Scottie Scheffler to take the outright winner. He has shown consistency throughout the season and is coming to the championship as the favourite.
Given Scheffler’s precision driving and great putting, he is suited for the environment on the course at Quail Hollow. With his experience in large events, he is very marketable.
Top 10 Finish Best Bet
For the above expectations, I would have to go with McIlroy for a top 10 finish. He has a superb track record at the majors and has multiple top 10 finishes at the PGA Championship.
Steady play under difficult circumstances makes Rory a dependable selection.
I also put Jon Rahm for a top 10 finish. His recent form, along with his consistent all-around game, strengthens his case considerably.
Top 10 PGA Championship Bets
| Bet Type | Player Name | Odds | Bet Description | Famous/Unique Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outright Winner | Jon Rahm | +1400 | Betting on Rahm to win outright, given his solid form and ability to perform in majors. | Rahm is the current world No. 1, making him a popular pick. |
| Outright Winner | Rory McIlroy | +1600 | McIlroy has been close in recent majors and has the driving power to suit this course. | McIlroy's career PGA Championship history makes him a fan favourite. |
| Top 10 Finish | Justin Thomas | +350 | Thomas has been consistent and has the experience to finish in the top 10. | Known for his major consistency, particularly at the PGA. |
| Top 10 Finish | Collin Morikawa | +400 | Morikawa has strong ball-striking stats and thrives under major conditions. | Famous for his calm under pressure, especially in big tournaments. |
| Top 10 Finish | Scottie Scheffler | +250 | As one of the top players in the world, he’s likely to be in the mix for a top 10 finish. | Recent form and a strong all-around game put him at the forefront. |
| Top 20 Finish | Xander Schauffele | +225 | Schauffele has been in the top 20 in every major and excels in high-pressure events. | His consistent performances in majors make this a safe bet. |
| Top 20 Finish | Viktor Hovland | +300 | Hovland’s improving all-around game makes him a solid bet for a top-20 finish. | Emerging as one of the best young players, with a promising career. |
| Top 5 Finish | Cameron Smith | +600 | Known for his excellent putting and short game, Smith could thrive on this course. | The recent move to LIV Golf has made him a unique betting option. |
| First Round Leader | Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | Cantlay has great first-round scoring stats and often comes out strong. | HHis first-round performance in past majors makes him a sleeper pick. |
| Head-to-Head Matchuph | Jordan Spieth vs. Brooks Koepka | Spieth +110, Koepka -130 | This bet compares two major winners and their current form. | Head-to-head matchups are popular for fans who like direct comparisons. |
Value Picks and Dark Horses
Contest ‘Underdogs’ That May Blow Your Mind
My focus is on players who have performed well recently but do not sit among the betting market’s top draws, likely due to a lack of consistent media exposure. Corey Conners is a perfect fit.
He usually breaks into the 20s and tries to contend for a top 10, which means he is a safe option for best golf bets at the PGA Championship.
Andrew Novak is a good example of this type of golfer as well, with his results and better-than-probable winning odds for a top 20 finish.
Long Shot Approaches
Long shots need a different type of strategy. Usually, I look for players who have shown flashes of greatness sprinkled throughout their careers or have good stats and are on the rise, but are getting overlooked in the betting markets because of their past doubts.
Xander Schauffele fits here. Schauffele’s odds might look long, but he combines skill and mental toughness, which pays off in big events.
When betting on long shots, the key is to combine them with main bets so that risk can be minimized.
This strategy also applies to players such as Jason Day, who still has the game but isn’t regarded as a top pick.
Expected value in a lot of bets can be made by betting that these players will make the cuts or finish in certain placements and placing those bets against the more favorable bets to win the PGA Championship.
| Type | Player Examples | Betting Angle |
| Underdog Picks | Corey Conners, Andrew Novak | Top 10-20 finishes |
| Long Shot Bets | Xander Schauffele, Jason Day | Cut, top 20 finish |
Expert Tips for Betting on the PGA Championship
Managing Your Bankroll
Before placing bets on events such as the PGA Tour Championship best bets, I ensure that there is a particular bankroll that needs to be filled.
This translates to determining how much money I am prepared to wager for the tournament. Regardless of what happens during the tournament, I do not exceed this set amount.
To keep things simple, I divide my bankroll into smaller units. For example, if I have $500, I might make 20 bets of $25 each. This helps me avoid big losses on one bet and keeps me in the game longer.
Timing Your Wagering
With betting on the PGA Championship, timing can be critical.
The odds change as the tournament nears since there is more information available regarding player form as well as course conditions.
My betting strategy involves placing some bets early when I believe the valuation for the odds to be favourable, especially on renowned players such as Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy.
These predictors yield better prices because the hype created pushes the Shark Odds lower.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the top contenders for this year’s PGA Championship?
I will put my money on Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler as top contenders because of their recent wins, alongside their consistent performance throughout the season.
Based on past performance, Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau stand out based on a collection of skills and history in major events. Tommy Fleetwood is a strong dark horse with good promise to finish in the top twenty.
What are the latest betting odds for the PGA Championship?
The betting odds suggest that McIlroy and Scheffler are the two favorites because of how tight the odds are for them and their status.
Others like Ludvig Aberg seem to have longer odds, but these odds make them appealing at lower prices.
Many books have prop bets such as “making the cut” or finishing in the top ten, therefore giving more avenues for bets.
Which players have the best track record at PGA Championship courses?
McIlroy had a few good finishes in Quail Hollow, the current host course, further proving his claimed odds of comfort and consistency.
Morikawa also adjusts pretty well to difficult, and sometimes unreasonable, layouts. Players with experience on these types of courses tend to deal with the pressure of majors better.
How do expert forecasts for the PGA Championship compare to the betting markets?
As with most of the odds provided, experts seem to follow a similar core set of favourites, which include McIlroy, Scheffler, and Morikawa.
Some argue that placing bets on the top 20 finishes by Tommy Fleetwood could yield good returns. The betting field is aligned with the experts, but also presents more opportunities to bet on longshots.
Who are some eye-catching candidates who are under the radar but could come in handy at the PGA Championship?
Of course, Aberg encapsulates the answer well as he comes in at decent odds, making him a strong pick under the radar.
Other lesser-known players with good recent form and course history like to fly under the radar and can surprise everyone.
These bets are riskier but favourable to those who wish to cash in big if they turn out to be right.
What other factors could be of importance when placing bets for the PGA Championship?
Assess prior performance, familiarity with the venue, and major tournament experience.
Do check the weather forecast as it can have a considerable impact on play.
Pay attention to the odds offered in the market; make sure to assess the odds provided to figure out where the value bets are to balance risk and reward.
